02.08.16-Climb a ladder, roll the dice and land on a chute. Is it a short chute or a long one?

2016 is turning out to be a life size game of Chutes and Ladders. Stock markets and oil are following each other lower again and chasing money to Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities.  Even lower rates are coming!!!

We have dropped in and out of the 1.80%'s in Treasuries and have been back and forth all morning. A closing in the 1.70%'s could be bad news for Real Estate and Mortgages, this could be the bottom mark & the catalyst to send us sailing higher faster than we can lock the lows. So pay attention and don't let your clients wait for the bottom, by then it will be way too late. Lenders will certainly take back their yields faster than they give them to us and at twice the speed.

We have a relatively light number of Economic reports this week with Yellen testimony Wednesday and Thursday. Jobless claims come out Thursday morning and Friday reports are Retail sales, Import Price Index, Consumer sentiment and Business inventories. These are all market direction reports and may turn out to be the only good news this week or just may add to a huge week of stock market losses. Mounting losses in stocks this week and Treasuries ability to maintain yield in the 1.70%'s with out big gains in stocks will help lock in the lowest rates we have seen in over a year.

I see many lenders waiting to see if these lows can be maintained before releasing even lower rates for us to use. Because of the fast pace of the rise and fall of Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities the issuance of the real rates could cause a huge influx of loans that the lenders are not staffed to handle. Market volatility is very stressful on Lender's trying to hedge whether this is a short term dip or long term. If you see a sustained closing of the 10 year Treasury in the 1.70's with minimal gains in the stock market we will see these rates come down yet again.

We are close enough to the bottom to announce it to your clients and any further waiting would be an error in judgment. There is very little room at the bottom to offer a float down option without insane charges to buy down. If you or your client feel trapped in a rate do not hesitate to call. A ready to go purchase can be closed in as little as 10 days with all of my lenders. You should never feel trapped by your rate. 

DON'T WAIT CALL NOW! 

Perfect credit or less than perfect credit rates for today:

01.26.16- Market's will be nearing normal from Snowmageddon.

Nothing much worth watching today, housing prices through November are out and were up showing the fastest pace of rising prices in 16 months. Consumer confidence comes out at 9 am and may show confidence has been shaken with the market and oil losses. But previous confidence reports haven't been factoring into the numbers, consumers may feel the stock losses are in line with growth and can afford some losses and that low oil increase consumer spending with low fuel costs?  Asian Markets are still a train wreck with daily 2% total market losses. Bunches of cash nearing a billion being pulled by investors from high risk funds plus the end of year withdraws from Corporate Bonds. Feels like a cliff is nearing and everyone is grabbing a parachute of cash to land safely. The cliff continues to lean towards more stock losses which would make the low Treasuries yields forecast come true. I guess we will wait and see how things shape up. Still great rates and trying to hold unchanged levels.

Another great day to lock your loans. Perfect and less than perfect rates for today: No lender fees, No origination or discount fees and never an application Fee.

01.25.16- Never a dull moment at the beginning of the year.

With limited market moving reports due out this week, not that bonds and treasures are paying any attention to them. We will see if any reports this week give us any ideas what bond and treasuries are looking at as pricing drivers.

First up this week today is Dallas Manufacturing Survey this region is in a deep contraction period and not showing any signs that the region is improving. This could way slightly on the markets with a further contracting report. Tuesday will see Case-Schiller price index and with December's record month over month increase this should be a bright spot of the reports this week and consumer confidence report that could really drop with the market losses and oils continue plunge and shake up the market even further. Wednesday brings New Homes Sales these could be off of December's records. With the weather and the Holiday's take this report with a grain of salt do to the limited number of business days for this report to be accurate. The biggest potential market moving  event is the Fed Meeting Announcement look for wording that wasn't in December's release notes to see  how nervous they truly are. Words such as China slow down, global volatility and inflation projection tied to the oil price collapse. On a side note the Fed has 10 voting members and 4 District President rotated in and out for this 2016, so there could be a new voting dynamic to watch for. Thursday has Durable Goods orders  they could have a hangover from a weak 4th quarter still. And then we have Jobless Claims Report, this is like the SuperBowl of market movers and betting on this is like betting the over and under. The line for this game continue to be 300,000. The OVER mean markets will drop and continue their losses and Mortgage Backed Securities and Treasuries will be the winners. And the UNDER will let's not talk about that. Then we wrap up the week with 4th Quarter GDP this should be awful and expected and the Chicago PMI this regions business condition report and it should show contraction but improving. There is potential for some of these reports to become more relevant to shaping the market then usual so keep an eye out for sudden market movements. 

Improving market and rates at 6 month lows, now is the time to act.

01.22.16-What a market week. Beautiful weekend to buy a home.

Some great news with the existing home sales report showing a 14.7% increase in December sales, a record breaking month of largest % increase. Rates will certainly continue to offer a chance to continue this trend month in and month out this year. 

The downside of this report is a sign of a strong recovered economy. Team this with a bounce to the positive after several weeks of major stock losses it is creating some pressure  to sell treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities aggressively so far this morning.

Looks like we are back in the trend of stocks follow oil prices and when they are both shooting up, we are going to see some rate increase. Let's hope since it is Friday and Snowmageddon will be hitting the East Coast trading drops quickly by lunch time. This could stem some negative re-pricing today.  So far we are trading sideways still and working in the same narrow band of pricing and holding onto the lowest rates since October '15.   Today's rates are still lower then they were through all of December record breaking closings. Available all weekend for Conditional Approval's to write contracts. No lender fee,  No origination charge & No application fee.

01.21.16-Taking a breather or waiting for the other shoe to drop?

Looks like a breather in the markets today. Half of yesterdays volume at the same point, jobless numbers were higher then estimate and Philly Fed was still in negative territory but better the forecasted. European Central Bank left their rates unchanged in this mornings news conference. Draghi states lack of inflation and continued low inflation is a concern and that further easing and other instruments are available to improve the economy. EU is basically kicking the can down the street until early March's Meeting.

In the US we still see a lack of inflation and lack of income growth as a concern world wide, even to the extent that we may only 1 Fed rate hike in 2016. And that is just in case they need to reduce to zero or turn to negative return in the event this is a prolonged sell off and truly the front end of a recession.

Choppy day in trading for Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities a little buying in the stock market is taking the steam out of our morning. Little better rates this morning and we were heading towards some positive repricing but we are starting to move sideways to higher now.  

Still a great day to shop for a low rate mortgage with NO origination or Lender Fees and never an Application Fee. Perfect or less than Perfect credit and when other say NO call me.

01.14.16-I think this is going to take awhile.

2016 has had something new and different every day. Let's look back to mid December when Corporate bonds were getting crushed and the money was racing out the door. We were not sure what was going to come once the Fed raised rates. And the we  were surprised that rates got better, but the fear continued into the first of the year.

Yesterday, InBev offers bond of $30 Billion to cover cost to purchase Miller and receive orders for $100 Billion. Story of the day sounds familiar "To Big to Fail" is the buzz word. Invest in Big and Safe Bonds, so the Corporate Bond market isn't dead. Safety of Investment is the new investing strategy or your bonds better be paying a high percentage of return. Yesterday was a 10 yr Treasury auction and the demand was the best in 13 months. I see continued flight to safety and a continued improving bond markets. Volatility will continue but I see each beginning and end of the trading day giving us better and better rates. This early in the year it appears the FED moved to soon on their rate hike. With more recessionary data and stock declines the odds of more rate hikes is being pushed to later in the year and possibly soon totally off the table. 

Time to show and sell!! I need 2-3 more loans of any quality of credit to hit goal for 1st half of February, please keep me in mind or any troubled underwrites currently with other lenders.  

01.13.16- Daily pre-market gains are being quickly erased once the opening bell rings.

I think this sums up the beginning of this year in the stock market "Nervous like a cat's tail in a room full of rocking chairs".  Daily major gains in the stock markets are quickly erased as soon as the bell rings, and it is happening again today but not quite as dramatic. Yesterday was a very interesting day in Mortgage Backed and Treasures because everyone is/was betting on rates rising and the market hates predictions so there was a huge move to buy. This in turned had the opposite effect and rates dropped significantly.

So far this morning we have given back a 1/3 of yesterday gains. Rates should actually come out better today then yesterday, since the last reprice was before lunch and most gains were between 1-3pm. The reason they stopped repricing was the gains came so fast that investors weren't sure if the gains would hold through end of business and this did. And with the dip in pricing the bank is always going to try and hold a little extra for themselves. :) Initial rate sheets are now out and indicting slightly better pricing then yesterdays initial rate sheets.

Today oil has rebounded from touch the under $30 mark and everyone is preparing for Thursday and Friday economic reports. Big days as they are the reports on the success or failure of this past Holiday Season. Also tomorrow is unemployment numbers so this is going to be a big couple of days to end the week. Keep an eye on the following reports they will be big market drivers for the end of the week and the beginning of next week.

01/14 - Jobless Claims- Moderate impact, 01/15- Retail sales- High impact, retail excluding autos -High impact, PPI reports - moderate impact and the Empire State Index which is a manufacturing activity gauge from the Northeast US. This report says this is a moderate impact, but I consider this a major impact because if product isn't being made then these workers are being laid off. So watch for any negative numbers in this report it could mean the other regions are suffering as well. 

Halfway to my monthly goal already coming up on the halfway mark of January, have the other half signing this week. Need some help with a troubled loan, remember talking to a really good prospect but they were credit challenged or self employed? Send them to me and let's start setting up for our February goals!

3.5% 30 year fixed FHA,VA  & USDA is back!!

01.12.16-Day 2 of the true first week of the New Year.

Thought yesterday would give us an indication of how things were going to go. Nope, more see-sawing in the markets. We started the morning up nearly 200 pts and now struggling to hold any gains at all. Oil is still in a nose dive. Normally when there is a large dip in the markets, it is a signal to buy more stocks. But it seems to be a split decision on if we have really seen this trends bottom. We have slight stock gains this morning but are seeing a nice recovery after yesterdays late day decline in Mortgage Backed Securities and Treasuries. Leaning towards some lunch time repricing to the better. Tomorrow's news will be the markets reaction to Obama's last State of the Union speech should be interesting. 

01.08.16- And today continues the craziness. Everything was up and now flatter then a pancake.

Double the trading volume this morning and the market was making a big run before the bell and it is starting to fizzle out. Oil was gaining but now is losing again. Retailer's are getting beat up so the holiday season wasn't  a success. Mortgage Backed Securities our rate drivers are flat after getting beat up some this morning. Almost all gain are now gone from stocks. This morning job report fueled the big gains but adding 292,000 $10 an hour jobs is not going to sustain a consumer driven country with low wage employment. Participation rate increased a little to 62%, image our housing market if we can add an additional 8-10% into the work force. 

The early in the year Chinese meltdown has greatly reduced the odds of near future rate increased. Some polls show less than a 45% chance of having another increase before April, so we are seeing it get pushed out into the 2nd quarter. This pretty much sets us up for a very successful first quarter barring any weather events or additional geopolitical dust ups. Let's hope everyone is back to work in the markets on Monday and are in good moods and we can make these rate a little for borrowers, purchasers and sellers. And in the time it has taken to put this post together all Mortgage Backed Securities have turned positive! Happy 1st Friday and happy showings turning into contracts!

01.07.16- Wild and crazy ride and only 3 1/2 days in.

China hit the circuit breaker again and closed for the day, 29 minutes after opening bell. Oil is still dropping and unemployment report showed a small drop, still believe this will be revised next week much higher with the flooding in the middle of the country. All market are way off but the US markets are slowly recovering. This little melt down was as high as 350 points off before the opening bell, all on only 12 million trades in early trading. Buyer are starting to come out in stocks doubling trade volume in the last 1.5 hours this is chasing them away early from Treasuries and Mortgage Backed securities. We had a nice little rally early but it is fizzling out and heading to slightly negative. We will see if yesterday started a pattern when money didn't show up in Mortgage Backed until very late in the day with substantial movement to positive territory. Hang in there, next week everyone will be back at work and we will hopefully see some stable market patterns start.

01.06.15- Looks like N. Korea was jealous about not being in the news.

Well looks like geopolitics is the market driver for early 2016. N. Korea detonating a H Bomb, Iran vs Saudi Arabia have certainly put a hurt on the stock markets world wide. Some other reports out today show TRID has slowed down mortgage lending with significant reduction in new applications across the board. ADP job report is signaling a better than expected report on employment. We will see how jobless number come out tomorrow. They may be less than accurate considering the middle of the country is cleaning up from historic flash flooding delaying or preventing some regions from reporting.

The good news is mortgage back securities across the board hit their 50 day average and some are gaining on the 100 day average pricing. Simply meaning even better rates are coming. Still looking for middle 3%'s on government and conventional loans.

Please don't forget to make sure you are arranging the best possible scenario for your clients and allow me to send over a quote to compare. You will be very surprised with our rates and additionally no lender fees or origination charges. And always send me what has been turned down by others or the admitted low score clients. I have a goal, to help you surpass your goals for 2016. This requires seeing everything that doesn't get approved or has low scores and turning them into buyers now.

01.05.16-I think everyone is catching their breath from yesterday!

Still low volume in trading. Good news is government mortgage backed securities have moved past the 50 day average. This means we may still see a small break out trending to better pricing. Fannie and Freddie are getting very close to the 50 day average as well. We need more participation in the markets to gauge a real New Year direction. Let's just hope for more flight to safety to better our rates once everyone comes back to work. Going to be a slow news week with only tomorrows ADP employment report and Thursday's unemployment report to cause any trouble. There is a small taste of retail numbers coming out Thursday as well that may make a small impact, today a report called Redbook came out showing a strong gain in after holiday clearance sales. These clearance sales may be the retailers only saving grace from the holiday sale season.

01.04.16-Wow, didn't see this coming this morning.

China is showing some major cracks with a 7% collapse and has shut down for the day. This isn't good, anytime a circuit breaker is used it creates even more panic, thought process is how much worse in a day could it have become. I guess we will see if cooler heads prevail tomorrow. This drop is sending shock waves through all of the markets inducing the DOW being off over 400 pts in 2 hours of trading. Watch retailer stocks if they start selling off we have an idea of the Holiday retail numbers without seeing them yet. None of this is good for our retirement accounts but we can make up for it in sales.

We are seeing a race to safety in treasuries as people are looking for safe havens to store their money without major losses they are looking at in the stock market. Half a day into the new trading year and we are seeing geopolitical spats with Iran and Saudi Arabia which can create havoc in the oil markets. Then we have China and it's controlled markets creating huge swings that ripple through the rest of the world.

So far "HAVOC" is the word that comes to mind to start 2016. How do we watch this out of the corner of our eye and not ruin our mind set? Always remember Havoc  in other types of markets is a friend to real estate by chasing money to the safety of investing in real estate or investing in treasuries and mortgage backed securities. The crazier the stock markets get the better our rates are and what we may lose in our retirement plans can be doubled by a record breaking 2016 in sales and closings! This should be a great rate week so any leftovers from 2015 can take advantage of 2016's great rates. Tie those shoes tight and let's start our march to the top!!