12.31.15-The last day of the year. Let it all go and carry nothing but positives into 2016!

Let it all go, walk outside at 11:59pm and scream it all out. Let nothing negative from 2015 follow you into 2016.  I will have to start at 11:45 to get it all out. Markets got some surprises the last 2 days huge drop in Chicago PMI, a number not seen since 2009 and an additional  20k to the unemployment numbers. These reports have given us a nice bump in pricing and will definitely give us some great rates until the Holiday retail numbers start trickling in next week. Markets are still trading in very low volumes with some big negative numbers. Enjoy the rest of 2015 and be prepared for the BEST 2016!!!

HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!

12.28.15-Good afternoon from Galveston. Mixing some work and pleasure in for the last week of the year.

Shaping up already as a slow week, don't let any big market jumps or crashes worry you. So far trading is less then 25% of a normal trading day, limited participation can make a slow day look really good or really bad. So relax, this week will trade flat and then January 4th we can buckle down and start reaching for our goals. Remember if you set your goals to low, what do you have to strive for in the second half?

I have set my personal goal at 115 closings and I hope to work with even more of my Linkedin Community.

I can guarantee I can help you exceed your goals by 15-20%.  How? I want your second looks and even if the client says they have AWFUL credit or the other company/companies have said NO or underwriting has actually turned them down.  **DO NOT GIVE UP ON THEM, SEND THEM TO ME**  I will never be able initially to replace your first choice lender, but I can supplement them so you can reach your goals. I have a reputation over the years that it isn't DEAD until I have looked at it. I have 2 that were turned downs elsewhere, one closed before Christmas and the other closes before year end. They were a 596 VA purchase with a previous VA foreclosure, he bought for $250k sale price. And a 581 self employed borrower in Texas purchasing a 180k sales price,that has been turned down repeatedly over the last 24 months with over 200 mortgage credit inquiries and he got to enjoy Christmas with his Family in his new house. Both with no lender closing costs and rates under 4.25%. I bet neither of these agents will ever give up on a file again. And both agents are rewarded for never giving up.

75% of  my career is from being able to quickly structure and quickly fix or repair credit issues or find a lender that doesn't have strict underwriting guidelines and turn these clients into homeowners NOW!!! When I help you exceed your goals, I will then have earned the right to ask you for most of your business. I am looking very forward to an incredible 2016!!

12.24.15-Christmas Eve.

Everything is wrapped, seats reserved for midnight mass and about 8 people working on Wall Street today. Short day with very low volume in trading, rates held the same with some small gains this morning. Unemployment report was only item today came in 7k under estimate, next week unemployment numbers come out on a limited participation market day as well, New Years Eve.  We actually have benefited from the Holiday's both being on Friday's this year and limited some of the patterns of worsening rates the day after better then expected unemployment numbers. As I mentioned in previous posts middle of the first week of the New Year will give us our January rate direction of better or worse.

I want to wish everyone a Very Merry Christmas and really enjoy this long weekend. 

MERRY CHRISTMAS!

12.23.15-Little late this morning but positive news

Already have a .25% repost to better pricing this morning. As mentioned before don't read anything into the markets next week as well. I will be out of town but will have the laptop with me to post rate sheets and call for any LE reviews or pre approval letters that are needed to go home shopping. I hope everyone has a Merry Christmas and get some rest because we have a 2016 to get after in a little over a week. 

12.22.15- Countdown to the year end slow down has started.

Hope you have your shopping all done. Turn the business tv channels off and don't look at any market web sites. Nothing to see here but day traders trying to make a buck or two before the year end and nothing  that would be a difference maker.  Next notable market gauge is next year starting January 4 this report means very little but the Gallup Consumer spending opinion poll may give an indication to January 7th retail store sales report. The big one is the unemployment numbers that same day, minus a major weather event slowing reporting this unemployment number may show a large increase from Holiday layoffs and manufacturing job cuts in the lean months of winter. This report will loom large for market direction through the rest of January and start the watch for potential additional Fed rate increases.  Still see another drop in the markets coming yet this year and definitely  after the first week of the new year pushing more money into treasuries and mortgage backed securities. which simply means continued great rates to finish the year and a great start to making records in 2016!!

12.18.15- Happy last Friday to shop for Christmas.

Sorry a little late this morning. No economic reports for today but that hasn't stopped the market from giving back with some substantial losses. Those losses are being picked up in Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities with some nice gains and as I type this popped up: 

Repost: 0.125% better to price for All Fixed Rate Products.

Effective: 12/18/2015 at 09:16 AM PST

Starting to get closer to dropping the rate on the 30 year loans, another re-price or two and we will get back to 3.75% 30 year fixed conventional and 3.625% for VA/FHA and USDA . I will try to update additional  re-pricing or a rate reductions today but have 4 purchases to close before Christmas. Need to go buy 4 Giant Bows to wrap these homes in. Have a great weekend of listing and selling and I am available for Pre Approval's and Loan Estimate Disclosures all weekend.

12.17.15- Janet Yellen nailed it! Not to soft, not to harsh. Just right for a successful 2016!

What a performance yesterday, nicely done Janet. This by far was the best scripted announcement since the Greenspan days. It was very soft on future direction but made it clear what it would take to continue rate increases.  She explained what was needed and what they will be watching to determine the MEASURED INCREASES moving forward.  None of the markets over reacted other than oil continuing it slide. I was most impressed with the Q&A yesterday, not one missed word, not even a breath to think about her response. She definitely brought her "A" game yesterday. 

Couple of things came out later in the day I thought were interesting regarding employment. Projected unemployment to stay near 5% or slightly lower, but a segment I found most interesting is that Unemployment (not underemployed or left the work force) of Master Degrees or higher was in the high 2%'s.  High degrees are some of the highest earners and companies will be fighting to keep them due to a small pool of candidates   This will certainly heat up personal income growth and benefit the higher sale price real estate. One Economist mentioned. “As the U.S. economy continues to improve, we expect wages to begin to accelerate more sharply.” I see great gains in personal income for 2016 which translates into more home sales and more home loans!

Mortgage Backed Securities are making a nice run this morning in trading getting back most of yesterdays pricing and Treasuries are being bought. It appears market volatility has calmed and should trade sideways through the year end. But, watch for retails numbers after Christmas those potentially sleepy consumer spending numbers could really hit stocks, those stock losses could be the Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities gains for better rates at the beginning of the year. 

12.16.15- FED DAY! It's all over but the waiting.

It is all coming together and today is the day. US lifts oil exports, oil continues to drop, all of yesterday gains in energy stocks are being given back and gains have moved to other sectors mainly banking. Other then housing starts I will expand on that further in today's post, the other 3 reports out this morning are lower than expected. All helpful signs that the FED increase will be a .25 increase instead of the 83% who see a .50% increase. Mortgage Backed Securities are moving with some losses in government loan rates and Fannie, Freddie flat to slight gains for conventional lending.

Watched Sam Zell  on Bloomberg GO this morning and he spoke of continued hot housing market. He certainly is plain spoken, he basically said if you were building a million homes a year, years ago and now only build on average 500k  what else can it be but HOT! And with the housing starts today being up 10.5% it certain shows it is taking off. But we are still short on new single family starts and with a mild start to the winter it is extending the building season. This will get us a head start on 2016 inventories. But remember housing starts include apartment buildings which is the majority of the 10.5% gains. 

This afternoon's release will let us know if our first quarter plans are inline or can we create a back up plan for our success in 2016! I am ready, let's get this announcement over with and prepare for a record 2016!

12.15.15-The day before the announcement.

Markets appear to be picking up steam but don't read a lot into it, trading volume is low and day traders are picking up some deals before tomorrow's announcement. Nothing stellar released in Economic reports this morning. Mortgage Backed Securities are taking a little bit of a breather and taking back some of our pricing gains. Government loan pricing is hanging tough but Fannie and Freddie are taking the brunt of the pricing hit so far. Don't be surprised to see the market gains fizzle towards the end of the day. Just remember what ever is announced tomorrow we are still in for a banner year in the real estate market, the market will react harshly one way or another and then come back around a few days later.

12.14.15-The 11 Pipers Piping's tune is the theme from "JAWS" leading up to the Federal Reserve announcement Wednesday.

As expects this market is all over the place. Several Pre- Fed Announcement events are shaping up with big consciousness.  One being, the massive liquidation of some high-yield corporate debt mutual funds to the tune of as of this morning $2+ "B" billion. This is just from 3  funds and can and will become much worse with low energy prices and continued declining commodity prices. All of this shaping up just as the Fed will increase borrowing cost, the market is predicting "mass carnage" those are some pretty ominous predictions. Plus oil is still trending down which is shaking the Dow and the S&P has broken through a technical level that could indicate a drop below 2000 with a chance of plummeting to the 1900. Feelings of all markets being oversold is creepy back into the conversation but by how much? Stay Tuned.

Why does this matter to Real Estate and Lending?

For one, once the liquidation of the high-yield accounts I mentioned earlier are freed up that cash needs to go somewhere. And I see that cash being settled into Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities until the 1st quarter shows us some direction for 2016. As well, these huge liquidation will ripple through other trading channels and cause additional flight to safety concerns and provide us with the same great rates through most of next year.  A perfect storm has been created for our industries to take off like we haven't seen since the early years of 2000, minus the bubble busting of course in the latter part of the decade.

My predication for Missouri and Texas real estate and mortgage lending for 2016 is for us to have a record setting year.All the fear created in real estate and lending circles from the introduction of TRID which is proving to be an easier process than anticipated. And the fear of the FED needing to increase rates has shaken some in the industry. I see higher and increasing sale prices, still historically low interest rates and additional lending options for non-traditional borrowers to help us have an outstanding year. I look forward to helping you obtain a personal best for 2016!!

12.11.15-Happy Friday, remember the big swings in markets I mentioned before?

Stocks are now tied to oil more tightly then usually. And those declines are chasing investing dollars to treasuries and mortgage backed securities.  Oil dipped again with China doubling their existing oil reserves removing some of the over supply from OPEC production and starting to cripple the US drilling & fracking business with below cost products. Bad for US businesses as well as potential unemployment concerns. Yesterday's post mentioned "out of sync" patterns taking over. Who knew it would start the week after the report was posted, further proof how out of sync it is becoming.

The good news gas is cheap freeing up more income to spend or use towards up-sizing or downsizing real estate. While the rate increase in inevitable next week, it is more important to listen to the remarks about the current conditions and the FED's expectations of what they want to see in future economic reports to determine further rate increases. One wrong word on the 16th could cause some serious swings in the markets. These comments from the Fed on the 16th will shape our 1st quarter.

Better news I feel  no matter the results of the 16th is the opportunity ahead in 2016. Borrowers up-sizing can take advantage of still historically low rates, softer underwriting standards and more disposable income from half price gas to purchase higher priced homes. While downsizing clients will get even more from 2016, the ability in a hot market to list their home for more and get some of the losses of the last decade back.  These clients have been waiting a decade to sell and next year they can get a premium for their larger home while buying a smaller home at  great prices.  

As for today the lenders are playing it safe with rates, slightly better pricing and waiting to see if the market sustains these gains. I see several market re-pricings for the better to end our week. Watch for re-posts to pricing in your LINKEDIN threads today! It is a Happy Friday!

12.10.15- Shaping up to be a slow and thinly traded day.

Looks like it is going to be a flat day, nothing wrong with the same sometimes.

Just read the Blackrock Investment Institute's 2016 outlook some interesting thoughts with all scenarios pointing to an "out of sync" business cycle. So many fundamentals will direct how things shape up. Most importantly said was, "Technological advances are set to keep dampening wage growth and inflation, reducing the need for the Fed to raise short-term rates as quickly and as high as in past tightening cycles" and "The impact of any U.S. rate hikes on long-maturity bonds is crucial. We suspect the Fed would prefer to see a gentle upward parallel shift in the yield curve, yet it has only a limited ability to influence longer-term rates. We detail how the absence of a steady buyer in the U.S. Treasury market will start to be felt in 2016."

Meaning as long as some institutional or country's step in and starts buying large segments of US debt we will see great rates through 2016 with the FED only increasing rates in very small increments. With that conclusion and the recent realtor.com article out that the St. Louis market is  #2 in their Hot Market Top 10 for 2016, we are in great shape for personal records for all of us. Let's finish 2015 strong recharge our batteries and really take 2016 by storm. 

2016 isn't even here and it is looking like it is going to be a great year. Happy selling and listing.

12.09.15-If the market was a roller coaster we would all be sick to our stomachs.

Wow, what a see saw battle 200 points up and 30 minutes it is gone. That fast spike this morning sent ripples through all of the markets. Government Mortgage Backed Securities were off by .40 basis points an hour ago and now are back to single digit increases. Make sure your clients are being kept up to speed of the changing market and they don't get caught on the high side. Make sure they understand that an .125% more or less is fractional on a monthly basis and not to sit on the fence thinking a better rate is right around the corner. Lock it if your within an .125% of application.  I have said this before, this market is not what we were taught in Economics, this is a new breed of ebb and flow. Who knows if we will ever see the patterns we were taught to help direct our clients. Be a student of the market and if you need help I am always available to discuss.

My rates are out and my investors didn't panic over this mornings ups and downs. 

12.08.15 Nice rally going in mortgage rates. Back to last weeks numbers and some.

With oil crashing this is the chance the stock market was looking for, create a sell off and fear. All posturing to keep the Federal Reserve from raising rates. Unfortunately I think it will be a swing and miss, almost a decade of zero cost lending  have propped up the stock market long enough. With the bounce back we have in interest rates this week means whatever is announced on December 16th is already priced in to our rates. We may see more seesaw patterns for the next 8-10 days but feel we are in a tight band of trading and will see continued great rates through the first quarter of 2016. Keep selling and I will keep closing them.

12.07.15-Happy Monday-Well on our way again today to recouping last weeks rate losses.

As expected we are in a see-saw battle of wills. Stock market playing sell off to guard against the Fed raising rates from 10 year of being at zero. Solid purchasing of mortgage backed securities again today after last weeks land slide. Continued weak retail results are putting some fear into the market.

12.04.15 Great news already have 1/2 of yesterday's losses back. Rates are coming back down.

Yesterday's late day market dive has translated into money pouring back into the Mortgage Backed Securities this morning. I look for this to continue and be back to Wednesdays numbers by days end. This up and down pattern will persist until the Fed meeting on Dec. 15-16th.  If your clients rate has suddenly been re-disclosed and it is higher then originally thought I have options for you. My newest investor has fantastic rates and can close them in 8 days, they have mastered the TRID process. Come and experience the easiest loan process in the industry. iknowamortgageguy.com or 314.607.8551

12.03.15-Getting roughed up a little in the markets, government loans not getting hurt as bad. Please lock your loans today.

EU Draghi opened the morning with their direction of using QE and US Markets didn't react well. And Yellen is speaking to Congress, results to follow. Mortgage Backed Securities have moved negative this morning, movement is substantial. Almost a months worth of change in the first 3 hours. Things will calm some towards the end of trading today, I warn to lock because tomorrows job numbers if reporting is "at" or "over" expectation this will cause further erosion. Rocky days ahead until the Fed Meeting on Dec. 15-16, but this spike could calm the Fed into holding off  on rate hike. We will need a sell off in stocks for this to come true soon. A lot different opinions on whats next, so stay tuned.

Conventional rates moved the most, while government loans are up slightly they don't react as fast to change.  Check your clients locks, ask to get locked and if you feel they are taking advantage of this to earn more on your clients, call immediately 314.607.8551 or send Loan Estimate & Closing Estimates to mike@iknowamortgageguy.com , I will give you immediate answers.

12.02.15- Check out 30 year conventional rates. Private Mortgage Insurance Premiums have been cut in half for high LTV loans.

A little news pointing towards a rate hike from the Fed Meeting in 2 weeks. ADP employment numbers came in a little strong, leading one to believe Friday's non farm payroll number will be strong as well. Definitely a week to lock in your loans. Still time to get refinances locked in before the Fed Meeting, have you had a mortgage check up lately? 15 year conventional loans available hovering around 3% but it won't last long.

12.01.15-The year was a marathon and now it is a sprint to the year end finish line. Plenty of time to close before year end.

Going to be a great day, reprice .125 better to premium right after rates were issued this morning. We are at the bottom of the rate trend, time to explain to your fence sitters now is the time. Just had a second reprice for the day!

11.30.15-Wow, 26 days until Christmas. Rates are trending down.

Great start to the week. Positive repricing should be expected this week have a good run going and don't see retail numbers over the weekend causing any rate changes. 

7th Annual Thanksgiving Dinner

Yesterday's 7th Annual Thanksgiving Dinner was a hit again. So nice to see so many smiling happy faces. No one left hungry or without a to go container or two. And a huge thank you to those who donated and spent the day or just an hour with us celebrating a day of thanks!

11.27.15-If you need a head start on refinancing this years Holiday credit card bills, I am here for you!