01.13.16- Daily pre-market gains are being quickly erased once the opening bell rings.

I think this sums up the beginning of this year in the stock market "Nervous like a cat's tail in a room full of rocking chairs".  Daily major gains in the stock markets are quickly erased as soon as the bell rings, and it is happening again today but not quite as dramatic. Yesterday was a very interesting day in Mortgage Backed and Treasures because everyone is/was betting on rates rising and the market hates predictions so there was a huge move to buy. This in turned had the opposite effect and rates dropped significantly.

So far this morning we have given back a 1/3 of yesterday gains. Rates should actually come out better today then yesterday, since the last reprice was before lunch and most gains were between 1-3pm. The reason they stopped repricing was the gains came so fast that investors weren't sure if the gains would hold through end of business and this did. And with the dip in pricing the bank is always going to try and hold a little extra for themselves. :) Initial rate sheets are now out and indicting slightly better pricing then yesterdays initial rate sheets.

Today oil has rebounded from touch the under $30 mark and everyone is preparing for Thursday and Friday economic reports. Big days as they are the reports on the success or failure of this past Holiday Season. Also tomorrow is unemployment numbers so this is going to be a big couple of days to end the week. Keep an eye on the following reports they will be big market drivers for the end of the week and the beginning of next week.

01/14 - Jobless Claims- Moderate impact, 01/15- Retail sales- High impact, retail excluding autos -High impact, PPI reports - moderate impact and the Empire State Index which is a manufacturing activity gauge from the Northeast US. This report says this is a moderate impact, but I consider this a major impact because if product isn't being made then these workers are being laid off. So watch for any negative numbers in this report it could mean the other regions are suffering as well. 

Halfway to my monthly goal already coming up on the halfway mark of January, have the other half signing this week. Need some help with a troubled loan, remember talking to a really good prospect but they were credit challenged or self employed? Send them to me and let's start setting up for our February goals!

3.5% 30 year fixed FHA,VA  & USDA is back!!

01.12.16-Day 2 of the true first week of the New Year.

Thought yesterday would give us an indication of how things were going to go. Nope, more see-sawing in the markets. We started the morning up nearly 200 pts and now struggling to hold any gains at all. Oil is still in a nose dive. Normally when there is a large dip in the markets, it is a signal to buy more stocks. But it seems to be a split decision on if we have really seen this trends bottom. We have slight stock gains this morning but are seeing a nice recovery after yesterdays late day decline in Mortgage Backed Securities and Treasuries. Leaning towards some lunch time repricing to the better. Tomorrow's news will be the markets reaction to Obama's last State of the Union speech should be interesting. 

01.08.16- And today continues the craziness. Everything was up and now flatter then a pancake.

Double the trading volume this morning and the market was making a big run before the bell and it is starting to fizzle out. Oil was gaining but now is losing again. Retailer's are getting beat up so the holiday season wasn't  a success. Mortgage Backed Securities our rate drivers are flat after getting beat up some this morning. Almost all gain are now gone from stocks. This morning job report fueled the big gains but adding 292,000 $10 an hour jobs is not going to sustain a consumer driven country with low wage employment. Participation rate increased a little to 62%, image our housing market if we can add an additional 8-10% into the work force. 

The early in the year Chinese meltdown has greatly reduced the odds of near future rate increased. Some polls show less than a 45% chance of having another increase before April, so we are seeing it get pushed out into the 2nd quarter. This pretty much sets us up for a very successful first quarter barring any weather events or additional geopolitical dust ups. Let's hope everyone is back to work in the markets on Monday and are in good moods and we can make these rate a little for borrowers, purchasers and sellers. And in the time it has taken to put this post together all Mortgage Backed Securities have turned positive! Happy 1st Friday and happy showings turning into contracts!

01.07.16- Wild and crazy ride and only 3 1/2 days in.

China hit the circuit breaker again and closed for the day, 29 minutes after opening bell. Oil is still dropping and unemployment report showed a small drop, still believe this will be revised next week much higher with the flooding in the middle of the country. All market are way off but the US markets are slowly recovering. This little melt down was as high as 350 points off before the opening bell, all on only 12 million trades in early trading. Buyer are starting to come out in stocks doubling trade volume in the last 1.5 hours this is chasing them away early from Treasuries and Mortgage Backed securities. We had a nice little rally early but it is fizzling out and heading to slightly negative. We will see if yesterday started a pattern when money didn't show up in Mortgage Backed until very late in the day with substantial movement to positive territory. Hang in there, next week everyone will be back at work and we will hopefully see some stable market patterns start.

01.06.15- Looks like N. Korea was jealous about not being in the news.

Well looks like geopolitics is the market driver for early 2016. N. Korea detonating a H Bomb, Iran vs Saudi Arabia have certainly put a hurt on the stock markets world wide. Some other reports out today show TRID has slowed down mortgage lending with significant reduction in new applications across the board. ADP job report is signaling a better than expected report on employment. We will see how jobless number come out tomorrow. They may be less than accurate considering the middle of the country is cleaning up from historic flash flooding delaying or preventing some regions from reporting.

The good news is mortgage back securities across the board hit their 50 day average and some are gaining on the 100 day average pricing. Simply meaning even better rates are coming. Still looking for middle 3%'s on government and conventional loans.

Please don't forget to make sure you are arranging the best possible scenario for your clients and allow me to send over a quote to compare. You will be very surprised with our rates and additionally no lender fees or origination charges. And always send me what has been turned down by others or the admitted low score clients. I have a goal, to help you surpass your goals for 2016. This requires seeing everything that doesn't get approved or has low scores and turning them into buyers now.

01.05.16-I think everyone is catching their breath from yesterday!

Still low volume in trading. Good news is government mortgage backed securities have moved past the 50 day average. This means we may still see a small break out trending to better pricing. Fannie and Freddie are getting very close to the 50 day average as well. We need more participation in the markets to gauge a real New Year direction. Let's just hope for more flight to safety to better our rates once everyone comes back to work. Going to be a slow news week with only tomorrows ADP employment report and Thursday's unemployment report to cause any trouble. There is a small taste of retail numbers coming out Thursday as well that may make a small impact, today a report called Redbook came out showing a strong gain in after holiday clearance sales. These clearance sales may be the retailers only saving grace from the holiday sale season.

01.04.16-Wow, didn't see this coming this morning.

China is showing some major cracks with a 7% collapse and has shut down for the day. This isn't good, anytime a circuit breaker is used it creates even more panic, thought process is how much worse in a day could it have become. I guess we will see if cooler heads prevail tomorrow. This drop is sending shock waves through all of the markets inducing the DOW being off over 400 pts in 2 hours of trading. Watch retailer stocks if they start selling off we have an idea of the Holiday retail numbers without seeing them yet. None of this is good for our retirement accounts but we can make up for it in sales.

We are seeing a race to safety in treasuries as people are looking for safe havens to store their money without major losses they are looking at in the stock market. Half a day into the new trading year and we are seeing geopolitical spats with Iran and Saudi Arabia which can create havoc in the oil markets. Then we have China and it's controlled markets creating huge swings that ripple through the rest of the world.

So far "HAVOC" is the word that comes to mind to start 2016. How do we watch this out of the corner of our eye and not ruin our mind set? Always remember Havoc  in other types of markets is a friend to real estate by chasing money to the safety of investing in real estate or investing in treasuries and mortgage backed securities. The crazier the stock markets get the better our rates are and what we may lose in our retirement plans can be doubled by a record breaking 2016 in sales and closings! This should be a great rate week so any leftovers from 2015 can take advantage of 2016's great rates. Tie those shoes tight and let's start our march to the top!!