Monday, February 8, 2016

02.08.16-Climb a ladder, roll the dice and land on a chute. Is it a short chute or a long one?

2016 is turning out to be a life size game of Chutes and Ladders. Stock markets and oil are following each other lower again and chasing money to Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities.  Even lower rates are coming!!!
We have dropped in and out of the 1.80%'s in Treasuries and have been back and forth all morning. A closing in the 1.70%'s could be bad news for Real Estate and Mortgages, this could be the bottom mark & the catalyst to send us sailing higher faster than we can lock the lows. So pay attention and don't let your clients wait for the bottom, by then it will be way too late. Lenders will certainly take back their yields faster than they give them to us and at twice the speed.
We have a relatively light number of Economic reports this week with Yellen testimony Wednesday and Thursday. Jobless claims come out Thursday morning and Friday reports are Retail sales, Import Price Index, Consumer sentiment and Business inventories. These are all market direction reports and may turn out to be the only good news this week or just may add to a huge week of stock market losses. Mounting losses in stocks this week and Treasuries ability to maintain yield in the 1.70%'s with out big gains in stocks will help lock in the lowest rates we have seen in over a year.
I see many lenders waiting to see if these lows can be maintained before releasing even lower rates for us to use. Because of the fast pace of the rise and fall of Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities the issuance of the real rates could cause a huge influx of loans that the lenders are not staffed to handle. Market volatility is very stressful on Lender's trying to hedge whether this is a short term dip or long term. If you see a sustained closing of the 10 year Treasury in the 1.70's with minimal gains in the stock market we will see these rates come down yet again.
We are close enough to the bottom to announce it to your clients and any further waiting would be an error in judgment. There is very little room at the bottom to offer a float down option without insane charges to buy down. If you or your client feel trapped in a rate do not hesitate to call. A ready to go purchase can be closed in as little as 10 days with all of my lenders. You should never feel trapped by your rate. 
Perfect credit or less than perfect credit rates for today:

Tuesday, January 26, 2016

01.26.16- Market's will be nearing normal from Snowmageddon.

Nothing much worth watching today, housing prices through November are out and were up showing the fastest pace of rising prices in 16 months. Consumer confidence comes out at 9 am and may show confidence has been shaken with the market and oil losses. But previous confidence reports haven't been factoring into the numbers, consumers may feel the stock losses are in line with growth and can afford some losses and that low oil increase consumer spending with low fuel costs?  Asian Markets are still a train wreck with daily 2% total market losses. Bunches of cash nearing a billion being pulled by investors from high risk funds plus the end of year withdraws from Corporate Bonds. Feels like a cliff is nearing and everyone is grabbing a parachute of cash to land safely. The cliff continues to lean towards more stock losses which would make the low Treasuries yields forecast come true. I guess we will wait and see how things shape up. Still great rates and trying to hold unchanged levels.
Another great day to lock your loans. Perfect and less than perfect rates for today: No lender fees, No origination or discount fees and never an application Fee.

Monday, January 25, 2016

01.25.16- Never a dull moment at the beginning of the year.

With limited market moving reports due out this week, not that bonds and treasures are paying any attention to them. We will see if any reports this week give us any ideas what bond and treasuries are looking at as pricing drivers.
First up this week today is Dallas Manufacturing Survey this region is in a deep contraction period and not showing any signs that the region is improving. This could way slightly on the markets with a further contracting report. Tuesday will see Case-Schiller price index and with December's record month over month increase this should be a bright spot of the reports this week and consumer confidence report that could really drop with the market losses and oils continue plunge and shake up the market even further. Wednesday brings New Homes Sales these could be off of December's records. With the weather and the Holiday's take this report with a grain of salt do to the limited number of business days for this report to be accurate. The biggest potential market moving  event is the Fed Meeting Announcement look for wording that wasn't in December's release notes to see  how nervous they truly are. Words such as China slow down, global volatility and inflation projection tied to the oil price collapse. On a side note the Fed has 10 voting members and 4 District President rotated in and out for this 2016, so there could be a new voting dynamic to watch for. Thursday has Durable Goods orders  they could have a hangover from a weak 4th quarter still. And then we have Jobless Claims Report, this is like the SuperBowl of market movers and betting on this is like betting the over and under. The line for this game continue to be 300,000. The OVER mean markets will drop and continue their losses and Mortgage Backed Securities and Treasuries will be the winners. And the UNDER will let's not talk about that. Then we wrap up the week with 4th Quarter GDP this should be awful and expected and the Chicago PMI this regions business condition report and it should show contraction but improving. There is potential for some of these reports to become more relevant to shaping the market then usual so keep an eye out for sudden market movements. 
Improving market and rates at 6 month lows, now is the time to act.

Friday, January 22, 2016

01.22.16-What a market week. Beautiful weekend to buy a home.

Some great news with the existing home sales report showing a 14.7% increase in December sales, a record breaking month of largest % increase. Rates will certainly continue to offer a chance to continue this trend month in and month out this year. 
The downside of this report is a sign of a strong recovered economy. Team this with a bounce to the positive after several weeks of major stock losses it is creating some pressure  to sell treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities aggressively so far this morning.
Looks like we are back in the trend of stocks follow oil prices and when they are both shooting up, we are going to see some rate increase. Let's hope since it is Friday and Snowmageddon will be hitting the East Coast trading drops quickly by lunch time. This could stem some negative re-pricing today.  So far we are trading sideways still and working in the same narrow band of pricing and holding onto the lowest rates since October '15.   Today's rates are still lower then they were through all of December record breaking closings. Available all weekend for Conditional Approval's to write contracts. No lender fee,  No origination charge & No application fee.

Thursday, January 21, 2016

01.21.16-Taking a breather or waiting for the other shoe to drop?

Looks like a breather in the markets today. Half of yesterdays volume at the same point, jobless numbers were higher then estimate and Philly Fed was still in negative territory but better the forecasted. European Central Bank left their rates unchanged in this mornings news conference. Draghi states lack of inflation and continued low inflation is a concern and that further easing and other instruments are available to improve the economy. EU is basically kicking the can down the street until early March's Meeting.
In the US we still see a lack of inflation and lack of income growth as a concern world wide, even to the extent that we may only 1 Fed rate hike in 2016. And that is just in case they need to reduce to zero or turn to negative return in the event this is a prolonged sell off and truly the front end of a recession.
Choppy day in trading for Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities a little buying in the stock market is taking the steam out of our morning. Little better rates this morning and we were heading towards some positive repricing but we are starting to move sideways to higher now.  
Still a great day to shop for a low rate mortgage with NO origination or Lender Fees and never an Application Fee. Perfect or less than Perfect credit and when other say NO call me.

Thursday, January 14, 2016

01.14.16-I think this is going to take awhile.

2016 has had something new and different every day. Let's look back to mid December when Corporate bonds were getting crushed and the money was racing out the door. We were not sure what was going to come once the Fed raised rates. And the we  were surprised that rates got better, but the fear continued into the first of the year.
Yesterday, InBev offers bond of $30 Billion to cover cost to purchase Miller and receive orders for $100 Billion. Story of the day sounds familiar "To Big to Fail" is the buzz word. Invest in Big and Safe Bonds, so the Corporate Bond market isn't dead. Safety of Investment is the new investing strategy or your bonds better be paying a high percentage of return. Yesterday was a 10 yr Treasury auction and the demand was the best in 13 months. I see continued flight to safety and a continued improving bond markets. Volatility will continue but I see each beginning and end of the trading day giving us better and better rates. This early in the year it appears the FED moved to soon on their rate hike. With more recessionary data and stock declines the odds of more rate hikes is being pushed to later in the year and possibly soon totally off the table. 
Time to show and sell!! I need 2-3 more loans of any quality of credit to hit goal for 1st half of February, please keep me in mind or any troubled underwrites currently with other lenders.  

Wednesday, January 13, 2016

01.13.16- Daily pre-market gains are being quickly erased once the opening bell rings.

I think this sums up the beginning of this year in the stock market "Nervous like a cat's tail in a room full of rocking chairs".  Daily major gains in the stock markets are quickly erased as soon as the bell rings, and it is happening again today but not quite as dramatic. Yesterday was a very interesting day in Mortgage Backed and Treasures because everyone is/was betting on rates rising and the market hates predictions so there was a huge move to buy. This in turned had the opposite effect and rates dropped significantly.
So far this morning we have given back a 1/3 of yesterday gains. Rates should actually come out better today then yesterday, since the last reprice was before lunch and most gains were between 1-3pm. The reason they stopped repricing was the gains came so fast that investors weren't sure if the gains would hold through end of business and this did. And with the dip in pricing the bank is always going to try and hold a little extra for themselves. :) Initial rate sheets are now out and indicting slightly better pricing then yesterdays initial rate sheets.
Today oil has rebounded from touch the under $30 mark and everyone is preparing for Thursday and Friday economic reports. Big days as they are the reports on the success or failure of this past Holiday Season. Also tomorrow is unemployment numbers so this is going to be a big couple of days to end the week. Keep an eye on the following reports they will be big market drivers for the end of the week and the beginning of next week.
01/14 - Jobless Claims- Moderate impact, 01/15- Retail sales- High impact, retail excluding autos -High impact, PPI reports - moderate impact and the Empire State Index which is a manufacturing activity gauge from the Northeast US. This report says this is a moderate impact, but I consider this a major impact because if product isn't being made then these workers are being laid off. So watch for any negative numbers in this report it could mean the other regions are suffering as well. 
Halfway to my monthly goal already coming up on the halfway mark of January, have the other half signing this week. Need some help with a troubled loan, remember talking to a really good prospect but they were credit challenged or self employed? Send them to me and let's start setting up for our February goals!
3.5% 30 year fixed FHA,VA  & USDA is back!!