Monday, January 25, 2016

01.25.16- Never a dull moment at the beginning of the year.

With limited market moving reports due out this week, not that bonds and treasures are paying any attention to them. We will see if any reports this week give us any ideas what bond and treasuries are looking at as pricing drivers.
First up this week today is Dallas Manufacturing Survey this region is in a deep contraction period and not showing any signs that the region is improving. This could way slightly on the markets with a further contracting report. Tuesday will see Case-Schiller price index and with December's record month over month increase this should be a bright spot of the reports this week and consumer confidence report that could really drop with the market losses and oils continue plunge and shake up the market even further. Wednesday brings New Homes Sales these could be off of December's records. With the weather and the Holiday's take this report with a grain of salt do to the limited number of business days for this report to be accurate. The biggest potential market moving  event is the Fed Meeting Announcement look for wording that wasn't in December's release notes to see  how nervous they truly are. Words such as China slow down, global volatility and inflation projection tied to the oil price collapse. On a side note the Fed has 10 voting members and 4 District President rotated in and out for this 2016, so there could be a new voting dynamic to watch for. Thursday has Durable Goods orders  they could have a hangover from a weak 4th quarter still. And then we have Jobless Claims Report, this is like the SuperBowl of market movers and betting on this is like betting the over and under. The line for this game continue to be 300,000. The OVER mean markets will drop and continue their losses and Mortgage Backed Securities and Treasuries will be the winners. And the UNDER will let's not talk about that. Then we wrap up the week with 4th Quarter GDP this should be awful and expected and the Chicago PMI this regions business condition report and it should show contraction but improving. There is potential for some of these reports to become more relevant to shaping the market then usual so keep an eye out for sudden market movements. 
Improving market and rates at 6 month lows, now is the time to act.


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