Thursday, December 17, 2015

12.17.15- Janet Yellen nailed it! Not to soft, not to harsh. Just right for a successful 2016!


What a performance yesterday, nicely done Janet. This by far was the best scripted announcement since the Greenspan days. It was very soft on future direction but made it clear what it would take to continue rate increases.  She explained what was needed and what they will be watching to determine the MEASURED INCREASES moving forward.  None of the markets over reacted other than oil continuing it slide. I was most impressed with the Q&A yesterday, not one missed word, not even a breath to think about her response. She definitely brought her "A" game yesterday. 
Couple of things came out later in the day I thought were interesting regarding employment. Projected unemployment to stay near 5% or slightly lower, but a segment I found most interesting is that Unemployment (not underemployed or left the work force) of Master Degrees or higher was in the high 2%'s.  High degrees are some of the highest earners and companies will be fighting to keep them due to a small pool of candidates   This will certainly heat up personal income growth and benefit the higher sale price real estate. One Economist mentioned. “As the U.S. economy continues to improve, we expect wages to begin to accelerate more sharply.” I see great gains in personal income for 2016 which translates into more home sales and more home loans!
Mortgage Backed Securities are making a nice run this morning in trading getting back most of yesterdays pricing and Treasuries are being bought. It appears market volatility has calmed and should trade sideways through the year end. But, watch for retails numbers after Christmas those potentially sleepy consumer spending numbers could really hit stocks, those stock losses could be the Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities gains for better rates at the beginning of the year. 

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